Uncertainty Abounds In Annual FAPRI Baseline Projections

Dr Pat Westhoff, director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri, presents projections from the group’s 2019 annual outlook at a conference hosted at the Bradford Research Center east of Columbia. (Photo by Kyle Hill, Alpha Ag Network)

The University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute spent the last weeks preparing their annual baseline outlook for the ag economy realizing that their projections were already out of date. FAPRI Director Doctor Pat Westhoff explains that while their figures released Wednesday were based on conditions as of January, recent developments including the Russian invasion of Ukraine have caused a serious jolt to potential outcomes.

Central MO Info · 22 0325 FAPRI Director Pat Westhoff on Increased Uncertainty cut 2

Westhoff notes that developments in Ukraine aren’t the only significant mover in commodity projections for the next year.

Central MO Info · 22 0325 FAPRI Director Pat Westhoff on Increased Uncertainty cut 1

Doctor Pat Westhoff of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri says work is already underway on updated baseline projections.

Prior to both developments, FAPRI projected the average farm cash price of corn to slide $0.70 per bushel to $4.74, soybeans to increase $0.24 at $12.72, and wheat to tumble over a dollar to $6.16. The average cash price for fed steers at salebarns in the plains was projected at $135.54, up over $13 from last year, while barrows and gilts were projected to tumble over $4 per hundredweight to $62.91.