Record Hog Numbers, But Signs Of Downturn Are Increasing

Hog Inventory set a quarterly record yet again in the U.S., but decreased sow numbers and farrowing intentions indicate that populations might finally turn lower. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report shows that just under 79-point-one million head were on hand as of September first, up one percent from a year ago, a record for the third quarter. Trade analysts were expecting a slight decline. The gain came from a six-percent increase in hogs between 120 and 179 pounds, and a ten-percent jump in hogs over 180 pounds, indicating that farmers are still holding onto animals for lack of a place to process them. Kevin Bost (boast) of Procurement Strategies in Illinois says slaughter pace would need to pick up significantly in the next three months to clear the backlog.

While backlog concerns and labor shortages persist, Bost says export demand could increase following multiple cases of African Swine Fever in wild boars in Germany.

Still, farrowing intentions are lower, with just six-point-two-three million sows expected to farrow in the next six months. Hogs kept for breeding were down two percent from a year ago. The summer’s pig crop of 35-point-one million is down three percent from a year ago, with a farrowing rate still just over 11 pigs per litter. Market hog levels also set a quarterly record at 72-point-seven-seven million, making this the 24th consecutive quarter with a record set.