Even before the global coronavirus pandemic wreaked havoc on the economy, analysts at the University of Missouri’s Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute weren’t certain which one path the ag economy would go in 2020. Their annual baseline report released Monday indicates two projections, depending on whether trade with China increases under the Phase One Trade agreement. Director Pat Westhoff says that would impact the price of soybeans.

FAPRI projected a price for the current marketing year of eight-85 per bushel if the phase one deal is fulfilled, versus an eight-48 price if tariffs remain in place. Sorghum is more dramatic, with a no-deal price of three-22 versus a Phase One price of three-73. Both wheat and corn could see a 12-to-15 cent boost if the Phase One deal finally takes place.

However, these calculations came before most of the world economy went into a freefall following the spread of Covid-19. Westhoff says his staff is preparing to develop updated projections.

The annual baseline outlook is available on the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute website.