Hog Backlog Could Persist Well Into Fall

Despite a heavy processing run estimated for last Saturday, the backlog of market-ready hogs is still expected to remain sizable over the next six months. David Miller, chief economist with Decision Innovation Solutions, says based on his calculations comparing slaughter numbers with last week’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, at least 2.1 million hogs disappeared over the last three months. However, Miller notes it’s not fully known which hogs were sold directly to consumers and which ended up euthanized.

Miller warns that the backlog will persist into the summer, and could worsen in the fall.

David Miller of Decision Innovation Solutions suggests that increased slaughter in the fall would also result in hog prices declining by as much as 25% from the previous year.