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AFBF Provides Analysis on First Year of Phase One Agreement

Another analysis of the Phase One Agreement shows China is behind on its commitments to U.S. agriculture. A Market Intel analysis by the American Farm Bureau Federation finds total exports of agricultural products covered under the agreement reached approximately $27.2 billion in 2020, an increase of $6.5 billion over 2017 levels. However, the export target of $33.4 billion was missed by over $6 billion. Despite missing the target for the 60 percent increase over 2017 levels, some specific products had banner years, including pork, poultry, beef, corn and soybeans. Farm Bureau economists say the missed target in 2020 also has implications for 2021, given that the Phase One Agreement is a two-year commitment. With 2020 exports of $27.2 billion to reach the two-year, $73 billion commitment, U.S. agricultural exports to China in 2021 will need to reach about $45.8 billion. This would be equivalent to a nearly 69 percent increase in exports over 2020 levels and a 120 percent increase over 2017.


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